Organizing Committee


Poster Presentations


Poster Presentations


Soybean rust prediction and analysis in the United States for the 2006 growing season

Presenter: L. Xue

All authors and affiliations: L. XUE (1), X. Li (2), X. B. Yang (2), D. Andrade (1), and Z. Pan (1). (1) St. Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and (2) Iowa State University, Ames, IA

Soybean rust spore dispersal predictions and disease favorability forecasts were made during the 2006 growing season using a climate-dispersal-disease coupled model. Built on the first-year experience in 2005 and simple laboratory experiments, some key model parameters were calibrated using previous spore and disease information. Procedures used in making the predictions were also optimized to reduce their computational costs and increase their consistency. The model prediction of spore dispersal and disease spread showed a predominantly northeastward movement of the rust, which was later verified by USDA observations. The climate conditions for spore dispersal and disease development, including winds, temperature, and precipitation, were analyzed to identify key meteorological influences on the spread of soybean rust in 2006.

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