Organizing Committee


Poster Presentations


Poster Presentations


Medium-range forecasts of soybean rust spore dispersal in 2007

Presenter: Zaitao Pan(1)

Other authors and affiliations: Lulin Xue(1), Xu Li(2), X. B. Yang(2). (1)Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO 63108, U.S.A.; (2)Iowa State University, IA 50011, U.S.A.

Soybean rust spore dispersal predictions and local rainfall favorability to the disease forecasts were made at weekly intervals during the 2007 growing season using a weather-dispersal-disease coupled model. The spore dispersal forecasts in a medium time range (23 weeks) were based on the regional atmospheric circulations predicted by the large-scale meteorological model (MM5). The rainfall favorability was projected using the forecasts of spore transports and predicted local rainfall conditions. This year we used two different source scenarios corresponding to both known and suspected soybean rust sources from soybean fields in Mexico and alternative hosts. Our model predictions were consistent with the observed spore trapping in the north-central region. We have predicted the disease occurrence in northern Texas and southern Oklahoma 30 days in advance. Our prediction in August also indicated possible spore showers in southeastern Iowa, where the disease was observed in late September. The ample spore sources in Texas and Oklahoma as well as the heavy precipitation events in the north-central region this year in August may have contributed to the disease occurrence in the northern states.

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