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Post-hurricane Analysis of Citrus Canker II: Predictive Model Estimation of Disease Spread and Area Potentially Impacted by Various Eradication Protocols Following Catastrophic Weather Events

T. R. Gottwald and M. Irey

April 2007


The impact of 2005 Hurricane Wilma on the dissemination of Xac, the cause of Asiatic citrus canker (ACC), was examined and predictions for spread of Xac were developed. Also, the effect of the current 1900-ft ACC eradication protocol was calculated and expressed as the predicted "impacted area." The results were used by state and federal regulatory agencies and commercial citrus producers to evaluate the feasibility of continued ACC eradication.


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