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Post-hurricane Analysis of Citrus Canker Spread and Progress towards the Development of a Predictive Model to Estimate Disease Spread Due to Catastrophic Weather Events

M. Irey, T. R. Gottwald, J. H. Graham, T. D. Riley, and G. Carlton

August 2006


Geospatially referenced citrus canker infection data from infections that were discovered after the 2004 hurricane season were examined in relation to wind and rain conditions experienced during the hurricanes and used to develop a predictive model to explain storm-related spread of citrus canker. The results suggest that the predictive model shows great promise a tool to predict disease spread as a result of extreme weather events and as a means of targeting resources for citrus canker survey and detection activities.


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