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Predictive Accuracy of a Fusarium Head Blight Epidemic Risk Forecasting System Deployed in Minnesota

C. R. Hollingsworth, J. J. Mewes, C. D. Motteberg, and W. G. Thompson

October 2006


A Fusarium head blight (FHB) forecasting model, designed to predict the risk that FHB epidemics will occur, is deployed statewide in Minnesota. Users of the system are made aware when local weather conditions promote or reduce the likelihood of a FHB epidemic. The system predicted non-epidemics with 60% and 66% accuracies in 2004 and 2005, respectively. Epidemics were predicted 50% of the time in 2005. Increased predictive accuracy is expected during 2006 as information on spring wheat cultivar resistance levels have been added to the model.


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