Organizing Committee


Poster Presentations

Poster Presentations


Midwest regional risk forecast of soybean rust in 2009

Presenter: X. Li

All authors and affiliations: X. LI (1), X. Yang (1), Z. Pan (2). (1) Iowa State University, Ames, IA; (2) St. Louis University, MO

Risk forecast of soybean rust over the Midwest was implemented weekly since May 2009 to September. The forecast constitutes a spore dispersal component based on the HYSPLIT model and a disease development risk component driven by predicted weather data in 4 weeks. With warmer-than-normal and dry weather in Texas in the early season, spore sources along the Puccinia pathway were very weak. Most spores were from the coastal areas in Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Limited disease development occurred along the coastal region in the early season. The first significant northward movement of spores was predicted to occur in early June. The forecasts in middle to late June indicated movement of concentrated spores toward areas in Arkansas, Kentucky, northern Mississippi, and Tennessee in middle June and July. The first report of soybean rust in northern Mississippi was August 8, followed by numerous reports during the next weeks. Due to limited spore sources in Florida and Georgia, the forecast indicated only sporadic spore movement toward South Carolina in July. The northern-most significant spore movement was predicted in late August to early September, up to central Illinois, very close to the reported location in Illinois on October 6, the northern-most movement of the disease in this year. Compared with predictions in the previous years, our forecast gave consistent results that the model was able to predict the general trend of soybean rust spread about 46 weeks prior to the disease detection.

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